Decarbonisation pathways provide a valuable roadmap for how to reach the Paris Agreement goals.
Decarbonisation pathways model different possible futures, considering economics, technology and policy, to explore how emissions might be reduced.
They can demonstrate what level of decarbonisation ambition is possible and illustrate the strategies and policies needed to achieve this ambition.
When modelled for a region, decarbonisation pathways can drive international collaboration by identifying disparities and opportunities in areas such as renewable energy potential and infrastructure development.
Pathways and policy are mutually reinforcing, with pathways informing progressive policy development and existing or proposed policies informing pathways modelling.
Often, pathways are produced in close collaboration with government stakeholders, reinforcing pathways’ credibility and usefulness to policy-makers.
To understand the modelling landscape in Southeast Asia, Climateworks Centre has undertaken a stocktake of decarbonisation pathways – assessing their ambition, the sectors and technologies they include, and how they compare with national decarbonisation targets.
Through this work, we have identified the following actions that could improve future pathways’ impact:
- Prioritise whole-of-economy modelling to support integrated policy responses.
- Continue to integrate realistic economic growth assumptions and embed socioeconomic analysis to align with country priorities.
- Engage with government stakeholders to ensure policy relevance and adoption.
- Incorporate analyses of financial requirements to help unlock climate investment and accelerate the implementation of climate solutions across the region.
More details on these findings can be found in the stocktake report.
Continue reading: Decarbonisation pathways in Southeast Asia: A stocktake of progress and potential (PDF 1.5mb)
Unlocking strategies for accelerated impact
Climateworks engaged with nine prominent organisations across the region, including modelling groups, think tanks and investors, to gain insights into the challenges and opportunities for strengthening the impact of decarbonisation pathways in raising climate ambition and attracting investment.
Four themes emerged from these conversations, leading to these synthesised recommendations for stakeholders to enhance how decarbonisation pathways are used in decision-making and investment
- Enhance cross-ministerial and interdisciplinary collaboration to explore more ambitious pathways.
- Apply a socio-economic lens to decarbonisation pathways.
- Establish an open-source modelling community of practice.
- Increase coordination between governments and the private sector to demonstrate investment opportunities for high-ambition pathways.
More details on these recommendations and the themes they emerged from can be found in the companion paper.
Continue reading: Translating decarbonisation pathways into action: Unlocking strategies for accelerated impact across Southeast Asia (PDF 0.8mb)
From modelling to real-world action
Decarbonisation pathways must be country-owned and country-led to effectively inform national decision-making.
This requires a deep understanding of each nation’s economic context and the diverse needs of public authorities across ministries.
Building networks of local experts that develop ambitious, context-specific pathways can serve as valuable benchmarks for raising national climate ambition.
Equally important is strengthening the capacity of local partners, such as modelling organisations and think tanks, to engage with policy-makers, fostering trust and ownership of the modelled outputs.
Early, transparent and sustained stakeholder engagement is essential to ensure that modelling assumptions and methodologies are clearly understood, interrogated and there is consensus.
Establishing long-term, collaborative relationships between modellers and policy-makers will be critical to building institutional capacity and ensuring the legitimacy and durability of decarbonisation strategies.
Read the summary report (PDF 1.5mb)
Read the companion paper (PDF 0.8mb)